Market Analysis, Schmalysis (Go Figure!)

In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
  - Johann von Neumann

Statistician: A man who believes figures don't lie, but admits that under analysis some of them won't stand up either.
  - Evan Esar

I love data.  I love analysis. I can happily spend days digging around, cross-checking, and thinking. Back in the 80s I even had a job where that was all I did. This was before the ubiquity of the Internet, so my office was jammed with teetering piles of journals, newspapers and consultant reports.  When I was in mid-project you couldn't even see my desktop. I got kudos for my performance, even got the absolutely highest job performance rating one could get at Northern Telecom (now Nortel) - the fabled .0!  ...and I also made two profoundly bone-headed predictions, because I didn't understand one all-important thing, which is...    

Don't make predictions based on the current state of the world - social, economic, or technical. 

"Obama has a 92.5238 chance of...based on..."  The "experts" are driving themselves (and us) crazy with their "analysis" and predictions.  And, they simply don't know - because they can't. We're in a time where nothing is steady state.  Our first African-American candidate. A woman VP candidate who isn't necessarily a "women's candidate." Economic meltdown. Dramatic climate change. 24-hour news cycles. Citizen journalists (the good, the bad, and the stupid).  We've even got Republicans who are being sued by the national party because they don't want to put an "R" next to their name on the ballot (Washington).  Quick, Alice! Where's that bottle?! I think I saw a white rabbit running by. 

Throw another business plan on the fire. Lines of credit for initial start-up? Ha!  Gas prices are going down a bit - but that's too late for many start-ups. Anybody who is dependent on supplies shipped long distances is really hurting (or already out of business.)  This is what I call the "What if" factor.  You should always build a little "it'll never happen" breathing room into your plans.  Even in the best of all possible worlds - it always takes longer and costs more to get to market (and sustained profitability) than you'd like.   

Those two bone-head predictions? 

1. IBM's OS/2 operating platform was going to dominate. (What's OS/2 you ask? Exactly.)

2. The mobile phone would never really take off.  (Who wants to lug that brick around?)

...now I'm off to order my new iPhone...;-)  Happy Friday!

Comments

[nike shoes wholesale]

This would get me excited if I'd seen some screenshots or heard some information about it, but at the moment, I really am not bothered about it at all.

[needapair]

Very Interesting!

[Yvonne DiVita]

Mary, this is just marvelous! It expresses my feelings about numbers, completely. I once had a fab accountant who practiced "creative" accounting - oh, he never did anything illegal, but he worked hard to find deductions for his clients.

I wish everyone who thinks numbers don't like would read this post. Thank you for writing it!